IMF’s New Report on the Global Economic Outlook

According to the IMF’s autumn meeting in Washington, Iran’s GDP growth is expected to fall sharply from 3.7% in 2024 to 0.6% in 2025. This marks a significant downgrade from the IMF’s previous forecast, which had projected 3.1% growth for Iran in 2025. The Fund now expects a modest recovery to 1.1% in 2026. Inflation in Iran is forecast to rise from 32.5% in 2024 to 42.4% in 2025, before easing slightly to 41.6% in 2026. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to increase from 7.6% to 9.1% in 2025 and remain unchanged the following year. According to the IMF, declining oil exports and weaker non-oil activity—largely due to intensified sanctions, including the reinstatement of UN sanctions—and the effects of the so-called “12-Day War” in June are among the key factors behind Iran’s slowing economic growth.

As for Germany, despite large-scale planned investments, economic growth for 2026 is expected to reach only 0.9%. The German economy is projected to emerge from a 0.5% contraction in 2024, posting a modest 0.2% growth in 2025. Inflation is forecast to decline slightly to 2.1% in 2025 and continue easing to 1.8% in 2026. The unemployment rate is expected to stand at 3.7% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026. The IMF notes that U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump, particularly higher tariffs, are weighing heavily on the German economy. The report cites “heightened uncertainty on multiple fronts and higher tariffs” as the “main drivers” of Germany’s weak growth outlook.