Iran Reports Modest Economic Growth in H1 Fiscal Year

The Statistical Center of Iran has released the latest seasonal national accounts, showing that the country’s economy grew by 0.1% in the first half of the Iranian fiscal year. Excluding oil, however, the economy contracted by 0.5%.

During spring, the economy had shrunk by 0.2%, raising concerns about a potential recession. In summer, growth rebounded slightly to 0.3%, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase compared to the previous season. While this indicates some improvement, it still falls short of the targets set in Iran’s higher-level planning documents.

Sectoral Performance
Among major GDP components, agriculture saw the lowest performance with a contraction of 3.2%. The industry and mining sector grew by 0.9%, and the services sector recorded 0.5% growth in summer.

When oil is excluded, the industry and mining sector experienced negative growth of 0.9%. Agriculture continued to show the largest decline, while services achieved the highest growth among the main sectors.

GDP Figures
The Statistical Center reports that Iran’s GDP at constant prices reached 5,066 trillion IRR in the first half of the fiscal year, up slightly from 5,061 trillion IRR in the same period last year, reflecting 0.1% growth. Excluding oil, GDP fell to 3,819 trillion IRR from 3,836 trillion IRR in the previous year, indicating a 0.5% decline.

Outlook for the Rest of the Fiscal Year
Given ongoing economic challenges, the Statistical Center expects growth to remain within the 1–2% range by the end of the fiscal year. This level of growth continues to fall significantly short of the 8% target outlined in the 7th Development Plan.